> The US warned anybody who wanted to listen (not many) that Russia was about to attack Ukraine.
I had a Ukrainian model over February 21st, 2022 and I had mentioned it, she was very dismissive about the idea of invasion, and I gave a quizzical look because I wasn't sure if this was a coping mechanism, a real belief, her playing devil's advocate, or just a cultural way of responding - you know how some cultures or individuals have toxic positivity like ingrained in all their responses.
To me, it was obvious, like short position, prediction-market level of obvious. 0 days to expiration options contracts obvious. I saw the buildup on the border, the chatter, what Biden was saying, how Republicans politicized it based on nothing.
But I still think about her reaction, like in the future how I would respond. It seems pointless to have a differing worldview than people, and that leaves me with either complete inaction or just financial bets. I like "betting on my beliefs" as that's rewarded decently, and I'm fine with things not panning out like I predicted.
Just seems more natural to have discussions and seek a shared understanding of reality. But that seems pointless nowadays.
I had a Ukrainian model over February 21st, 2022 and I had mentioned it, she was very dismissive about the idea of invasion, and I gave a quizzical look because I wasn't sure if this was a coping mechanism, a real belief, her playing devil's advocate, or just a cultural way of responding - you know how some cultures or individuals have toxic positivity like ingrained in all their responses.
To me, it was obvious, like short position, prediction-market level of obvious. 0 days to expiration options contracts obvious. I saw the buildup on the border, the chatter, what Biden was saying, how Republicans politicized it based on nothing.
But I still think about her reaction, like in the future how I would respond. It seems pointless to have a differing worldview than people, and that leaves me with either complete inaction or just financial bets. I like "betting on my beliefs" as that's rewarded decently, and I'm fine with things not panning out like I predicted.
Just seems more natural to have discussions and seek a shared understanding of reality. But that seems pointless nowadays.