I have some predictions (somewhat competing with one another, but I do think all three will occur to varying degrees):
1. It will lead to an even higher incidence of counterfeit products and used products being sold as if they were new.
2. It will lead to higher prices.
3. It will lead to a poorer selection of products.
All three, I think, will damage Amazon's future business, which in turn will induce Amazon to make more changes like these in a kind of profit-driven death spiral.
I already use Amazon very little these days because I can find more reliable quality and better prices from other sites. I used to use Amazon all the time for routine purchases, but now I only use it for items I can find nowhere else (an increasingly uncommon scenario).
Agreed. I think it will lead to a product gulf where on low end you have stuff that can be cranked out for cheap with low margins, and other stuff that is premium. Nothing in the middle.
I am not sure. I think on the premium end, no one will want to risk Amazon knock-offs, brick-filled boxes, and other shenanigans. There was a day not long ago where everything premium I bought came from Amazon because I trusted them. That day is long gone.
On the low-end, I actually don't get how sellers stay in business with Amazon fees, but for the most part, my go-to is increasingly direct (Aliexpress, eBay, or similar).
I'm down to about two Amazon orders per month. That's down from several orders a week a half-decade ago. It's also a bit of an increasing death spiral, since I gave up Prime and Amazon is now just annoying without Prime.
I do feel there is room for a vendor to take Amazon's place. The next one should have:
- 100% direct supply chains. No knockoffs. If I order Sandisk, it either comes form Sandisk, or from Sandisk direct to the vendor.
- 2019-era Amazon customer service
- Fair prices. Fair doesn't mean beating Amazon and Walmart (customer service costs something), but that I never get hit with a 10x markup. I should be able to trust I'm not being cheated without shopping around.
- Honest reviews
- Ideally, over time, shoppers, vendor-recommended products, and expert reviews. Trader Joes and Apple to well by virtue of fewer, better SKUs. Buying dpreview could have been a great fit for Amazon, but as is, building out something like the old Wirecutter, Consumer Reports, etc.
- I can even see more social models, like forums with company reps, experts, etc. where I can ask a question before I buy.
The logistics here are a multi-billion-dollar play, but might be possible either leveraging local stores or in partnership with a Fedex or UPS.
1. It will lead to an even higher incidence of counterfeit products and used products being sold as if they were new.
2. It will lead to higher prices.
3. It will lead to a poorer selection of products.
All three, I think, will damage Amazon's future business, which in turn will induce Amazon to make more changes like these in a kind of profit-driven death spiral.
I already use Amazon very little these days because I can find more reliable quality and better prices from other sites. I used to use Amazon all the time for routine purchases, but now I only use it for items I can find nowhere else (an increasingly uncommon scenario).