Except they're not in widespread usage, so aren't relevant.
No grads are going "gee, do I go with a .NET shop, a JVM shop, or a BEAM shop?"
And as for Common Lisp, which implementation? They can't even be compatible amongst themselves, so I'm dubious that SBCL CL from 13 years ago would just work.
> And as for Common Lisp, which implementation? They can't even be compatible
> amongst themselves, so I'm dubious that SBCL CL from 13 years ago would just
> work.
> Except they're not in widespread usage, so aren't relevant.
I don't know any java programmers either. Apparently people use java, I just dont know any that do it willingly. I'm sure they -must- use it, but erlang/fortran/etc as mythical to you as java is to me.
> No grads are going "gee, do I go with a .NET shop, a JVM shop, or a BEAM shop?"
Fresh grads don't know better, they take whatever pays. Businesses choose the cheapest (not the best) option and grads don't have the experience to choose better. Grads choices are not a measure of quality or desirability.
> And as for Common Lisp, which implementation? They can't even be compatible
> amongst themselves, so I'm dubious that SBCL CL from 13 years ago would just
> work.
My SBCL from 2010ish works, I've patched it up and improved it over time, but I haven't tried to run the original, it probably does. Its been through svn to git so I've lost the history, all of this is as anecdotal as anything else. Previous lisp code that I wrote was trivial and ran out of the box on SBCL, however the code is very self contained and not 'networked' or 'modern'.
My erlang code however has been running in a cluster since the early 2000's, it has also been through several releases for additional features, however I no longer have access to that code so I can't validate what has been done to it for the last decade.
I like your arguments, I just dont think we're coming from the same historical viewpoint.
The Lindy effect assumes you have no other information about the thing you're estimating. Obviously if I know the thing is on its deathbed, I can't invoke the Lindy effect. Similarly, a hundred-year-old language one person uses any more isn't likely to last another hundred years.
Given the relative sizes, I wouldn't bet on Common Lisp outlasting Java just because it's older.
I won't doubt how java doing well, but other languages have it beat.