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I predict most forks will go nowhere because the success of a fork requires developers to contribute to it. In most cases the forks are being driven by people who just want free stuff and are angry they can't be subsidized anymore. They don't want to actually do any work.

Open source is not about just leeching free stuff. It's supposed to be a gift economy where you give back either directly or indirectly by promoting, educating, or donating. The F in FOSS is supposed to stand for Freedom not Free-as-in-beer.

A full revolt is in progress against the entire SaaS enterprise leeching off open source. Larger often business backed projects like this changing to source available licenses is the most visible manifestation, but I also see more and more indie devs using licenses like the AGPL or not open sourcing at all.

Open source will die as anything but a dumping strategy by mega-corps to crush competition if we don't deal with this. The OSI is fully captured by companies that benefit from the status quo, so I don't see them doing anything about it.




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